Hammer of Math: Pariah Nexus Secret Missions

In Hammer of Math, we take a look at key statistical issues in wargames. Today we're looking at Secret Missions in Pariah Nexus.

Secret Missions replaced Gambits (from Leviathan) with the release of the Pariah Nexus Missions deck in July 2024, shifting from a randomized set of nearly impossible-to-score objectives to a much more regular set of missions which weren't just achievable, they were downright reliable. Too much, even - under the first set of Pariah Nexus rules, many armies could straight-up plan on scoring a secret mission - especially if they were going second - and use that along with turn 5 scoring to pull 30+ points on the game's final turn, pulling out insane turnarounds which largely made scoring primary during the game unnecessary - they just needed to hold an opponent to fewer than 40 points on primary.

With the Q4 balance update it's worth looking at Secret Missions, how they've changed into Pariah Nexus, and what they may look like going forward with recent data.

Gambits

Let's start by taking a quick look back at Gambits. Leviathan offered three options for Gambits, which were also chosen at the end of the third battle round. Finishing these would net you 30 primary VP, but once you selected one you'd stop scoring primary VP.

• Delaying Tactics had you determine a number of units to tie up in combat (the number was at least 4), and at the end of your fifth turn you'd roll a D6 for each enemy unit within engagement range of a unit in your army, and if you beat your target number of 4+ results (there were some modifiers), you'd complete the gambit. This was just bonkers ridiculous to achieve, and you'd often need to have 6+ enemy units alive and tied up in melee to even have a real chance at success.
• Emergency Evacuation had a similar task to Delaying Tactics with a target number, only instead of enemy units in melee, you were trying to be wholly within 6" of the center of the table, and again rolling a 4+ for each on a D6. Nevermind the need to physically fit 4 or more units wholly within 6" of the center of the table.
• Orbital Strike Coordinates - The only gambit that was even remotely achievable, This one had you roll 2D6, adding 1 for every other corner of the table save your own that has a friendly unit wholly within 9". Score a 12+ to succeed. You could get this up to a 9+ with three corners and end up with decent odds.

According to Tabletop Battles and our records from 279,346 games played between June 2023 and November 2024, Gambits were picked in only 0.34% of games played, and of these, more than half (0.19%) were Orbital Strike Coordinates, though note that 33% of the time that Gambit would be randomly discarded before selection. When it came to success, well:

• Delaying Tactics - 11% Success Rate, 23% win rate when succeeded
• Emergency Evacuation - 12% Success Rate, 45% win rate when succeeded
• Orbital Strike Coordinates - 16.5% Success Rate, 27.5% win rate when succeeded

Those aren't great stats, and it's easy to see why Gambits weren't very popular.

Credit: Robert "TheChirurgeon" Jones

Secret Missions

Compared to Gambits, Secret Missions were both a huge step up and much more reliable. While they capped a player at 40 Primary VP, they were generally much easier to score and could be regularly chosen, while also not preventing you from continuing to score primary VP otherwise. They're also dependable - no rolling to see if you get your points with these; they just work.

• Command Insertion – Have your Warlord in range of one or more objective markers in your opponent’s deployment zone that you control.
• Shatter Cohesion – Your opponent has no units on the battlefield, or if they do, those units are either Battle-shocked, below Half-strength, or more than 3” away from all objective markers.
• Unbroken Wall – You control 3+ objective markers not within your deployment zone.
• War of Attrition – One or more BATTLELINE units from your army is in your opponent’s deployment zone, and they have no Battleline units on the battlefield, or if they do, they’re all within (not wholly within) their deployment zone.

Of these, we pointed out Unbroken Wall in our initial review as the one to watch out for, since going second often makes it trivial for some armies to capture all three objectives in No Man's Land. That said, each of these had its own clear use-cases for play, and as it turns out, the regular dependability made it possible for players to just plan around scoring these. As a result they were both chosen more often and completed much more often - Secret Missions were chosen in 7.2% of Pariah Nexus games before the Balance Update.

Looking at the 112,503 games of Warhammer 40k logged in Pariah Nexus and looking just at games recorded before October 18, 2024 gives us these results:

• Command Insertion - Chosen 3% of games, 61% success rate, 29% win rate when successful
• Shatter Cohesion - Chosen 0.6% of games, 50% success rate, 32% win rate when successful
• Unbroken Wall - Chosen 1.5% of games, 60% success rate, 39% win rate when successful
• War of Attrition - Chosen 2.1% of games, 63% success rate, 26% win rate when successful

That's a huge jump from Gambits, and it's also easy to see how you can plan for something like Unbroken Wall and then take it to a 60% success rate/40% win rate. That said, the stats are still low - in order to pick Unbroken Wall you need to be behind in Primary scoring, and it may not make sense to pick unless you were going second, and even then only on some missions.

Post-Balance Update

It's still early days, but we can start looking at how things have changed since the Q4 balance update changed Secret Missions, removing player primary scoring in round 5 for a player opting for a Secret Mission. It's a big change that makes it much harder to rely on Secret Missions for a 30+ VP turnaround on primary.

• Command Insertion - Chosen 2.4%, 61% success rate, 22% win rate on success
• Shatter Cohesion - Chosen 0.4%, 57% success rate, 32% win rate on success
• Unbroken Wall - Chosen 1.1%, 57% success rate, 32% win rate on success
• War of Attrition - Chosen 1.7%, 69% success rate, 29% win rate on success

It's early days and these can still move - while this represents a sample of 12,860 games total since the update, only 925 of those involved a secret mission pick for a player, and that's just small enough that some of the mission stats are still a bit volatile. That said, they aren't that volatile, and we can consider these directional. The big result here to look at is the choose rates, which have gone down for every single Secret Mission. Success Rates have also gone down slightly, and more importantly win rates for Command Insertion and Unbroken Wall have dropped substantially. That seems like the desired outcome, but it remains to be seen whether these numbers will continue to adjust or if this is a stable outcome.

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